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Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Airbnb runs an online marketplace where hosts list homes, rooms, boutique hotels, experiences and services, and guests book them through its app and website. Guests are travelers worldwide; supply comes from over 5.5 million hosts, most of them individuals and small property managers. [S1]
Airbnb charges service fees on each booking, retaining about 13 percent of gross booking value as revenue in Q2 2026. Fees are collected at booking and recognized when the stay occurs. Smaller streams include guest travel insurance and fees on experiences and services. [S1]
Explore the research to see how business evidence informs assumptions and valuation.
Start with the business evidence, then follow the assumptions through to scenarios and valuation.
Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Valuation and assumptionsAirbnb is gaining share with accelerating nights growth and a 37% free cash flow margin, but the price assumes GAAP margins near Booking's while marketing and stock pay remain heavy.
A valuation model that works backward from a share price to find combinations of growth, margins, and other assumptions consistent with that price.
In this report: Used to show the price requires about a 32% long-run GAAP margin under this report's other assumptions.
AI assistants that complete bookings could make Airbnb a supplier to a new intermediary, lowering take rate or raising marketing cost.
Revenue divided by gross booking value: the share of what guests spend that the platform keeps as its own revenue.
In this report: Airbnb's take rate has held near 13.2% to 13.6%. Because extra revenue at the same booking volume costs little to deliver, small take-rate changes move profit and value sharply.
Airbnb keeps about 13% of the value of each booking as fees, collects them upfront, and needs almost no capital because hosts own the property. Growth is funded through marketing and product spending in the income statement, not through the balance sheet.
Revenue divided by gross booking value: the share of what guests spend that the platform keeps as its own revenue.
In this report: Airbnb's take rate has held near 13.2% to 13.6%. Because extra revenue at the same booking volume costs little to deliver, small take-rate changes move profit and value sharply.
Reported free cash flow minus stock-based compensation, treating share-based pay as the real cost it is to shareholders.
In this report: Airbnb's $4.8bn TTM free cash flow falls to about $3.1bn after SBC, which changes the stock's cash yield from about 5.3% to about 3.5%.
Holding growth and a 10.2% discount rate at base levels, $152.30 requires a long-run GAAP operating margin of about 32%, versus about 21% today and 28% in the base case. This is a model-implied expectation, not an observable market belief.
A valuation model that works backward from a share price to find combinations of growth, margins, and other assumptions consistent with that price.
In this report: Used to show the price requires about a 32% long-run GAAP margin under this report's other assumptions.
The weighted average required return of a company's debt and equity providers, used to discount cash flows to the firm.
In this report: With the 10-year Treasury near 5%, the 10.2% WACC is high by recent standards and a 1-point change moves value by $15 to $21 per share.
A strong business at a full price. Probability-weighted value is about $139, and expected 5-year returns of roughly 2% to 7% a year sit below the cost of equity. Hold.
Long-run GAAP operating margin matters most because SBC near 13% of revenue and fast-growing marketing separate reported and adjusted profit; each 3 points is worth about $12 per share.
Reported free cash flow minus stock-based compensation, treating share-based pay as the real cost it is to shareholders.
In this report: Airbnb's $4.8bn TTM free cash flow falls to about $3.1bn after SBC, which changes the stock's cash yield from about 5.3% to about 3.5%.
The sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue when some operating costs are fixed.
In this report: Airbnb's largely fixed product and G&A costs let margins rise with volume, but rising marketing spend currently offsets part of that leverage.
Take rate converts bookings into revenue almost one for one into profit, so a 50 bp change moves value about $12 per share.
Revenue divided by gross booking value: the share of what guests spend that the platform keeps as its own revenue.
In this report: Airbnb's take rate has held near 13.2% to 13.6%. Because extra revenue at the same booking volume costs little to deliver, small take-rate changes move profit and value sharply.
AI agents and a travel slowdown cut nights growth to about 5% and trim take rate, while marketing stays elevated, holding GAAP margin near 20%.
Revenue divided by gross booking value: the share of what guests spend that the platform keeps as its own revenue.
In this report: Airbnb's take rate has held near 13.2% to 13.6%. Because extra revenue at the same booking volume costs little to deliver, small take-rate changes move profit and value sharply.
Nights growth fades from 10% toward 7%, take rate is flat, marketing growth converges to revenue growth by 2028, and SBC declines, lifting GAAP margin to 28%.
The sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue when some operating costs are fixed.
In this report: Airbnb's largely fixed product and G&A costs let margins rise with volume, but rising marketing spend currently offsets part of that leverage.
Unique supply wins agentic distribution on Airbnb's terms, expansion markets and hotels sustain low-teens growth, and fee changes plus lower SBC push GAAP margin to 33%.
Sales and marketing growth versus revenue growth: a gap above 10 points for a third quarter would weaken the margin thesis; convergence would support it.
Take rate each quarter, especially after the single 15.5% fee migration and any AI-agent partnerships.
Revenue divided by gross booking value: the share of what guests spend that the platform keeps as its own revenue.
In this report: Airbnb's take rate has held near 13.2% to 13.6%. Because extra revenue at the same booking volume costs little to deliver, small take-rate changes move profit and value sharply.
The 2025 10-K was not read in this session, so geographic revenue split, traffic-channel mix, credit ratings, voting-control percentages and regulatory case detail are unverified. Revenue from services and experiences is not disclosed. No verified industry TAM or historical ABNB valuation multiples were obtained. FY2023 FCF and FY2024 SBC are unverified. The economic magnitude of AI-agent intermediation cannot yet be established from evidence. Bear and bull values use a simplified re-scaling of the base DCF rather than fully separate models.
These model scenarios depend on their inputs. Review the assumptions and supporting evidence alongside the implied values.
earnings multiple v2 · as of 2026-10-18
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