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Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Amgen discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets biologic medicines for oncology, cardiovascular, inflammation, rare disease, bone health, and obesity. It sells to pharmaceutical wholesalers in the U.S. and healthcare providers internationally. [S8][S29]
Revenue is almost entirely product sales ($35.15bn in 2025), plus other revenues ($1.60bn) from royalties and licensing. U.S. is 71.9% of revenue; non-U.S. is 28.1%. [S26][S27][S29]
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Start with the business evidence, then follow the assumptions through to scenarios and valuation.
Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Valuation and assumptionsAmgen's growth portfolio is expanding 26% annually, but the Prolia/XGEVA franchise is declining 33% and faces further biosimilar erosion. The central tension is whether Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, rare disease, and biosimilars can sustain enough growth to offset legacy declines before MariTide reaches market.
MariTide Phase III failure would remove the most significant growth optionality and leave Amgen dependent on a portfolio with decelerating growth against an accelerating LOE cliff.
At $381.50, the market appears to price mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable-to-improving margins, and a moderate probability of MariTide success. The implied DCF requires about 5.5% revenue CAGR and 28-29% EBIT margins by 2030.
We rate Amgen a hold at $381.50. Base-case intrinsic value is about $440 per share, but the stock trades near that level after accounting for binary MariTide risk, high leverage, and a declining legacy franchise. A price below $340 would offer an adequate margin of safety.
MariTide Phase III outcome: success could add $5-10bn peak sales worth $100+ per share; failure removes key optionality.
Repatha growth: 37% year-over-year, largest growth driver. Deceleration below 15% would pressure revenue and sentiment.
Prolia/XGEVA decline: down 33%, structural biosimilar erosion. Faster decline directly cuts revenue and margins.
MariTide fails and Prolia/XGEVA declines accelerate; revenue growth stalls at 1-2% and operating margin compresses to 22-23%, driving intrinsic value to about $305.
MariTide succeeds modestly; growth portfolio sustains 20%+ growth and legacy decline moderates; revenue grows 4-5% and margin expands to 27-28%, implying about $440.
MariTide succeeds strongly and captures 10-15% obesity share; olpasiran also succeeds; revenue grows 7-8% and margin exceeds 30%, implying about $575.
Quarterly Repatha sales growth; warning if below 15% for two quarters.
Prolia/XGEVA decline rate; warning if worse than -40% for two quarters.
MariTide Phase III readouts; success or failure reshapes intrinsic value by $100+ per share.
We could not verify the exact product-level profitability or the precise returns on the Horizon Therapeutics acquisition. Segment-level margin data is not disclosed. The timing of MariTide Phase III readouts is uncertain.
These model scenarios depend on their inputs. Review the assumptions and supporting evidence alongside the implied values.
earnings multiple v2 · as of 2026-10-18
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