eBay operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers across about 190 markets, with 136 million active buyers. It specialises in enthusiast categories such as collectibles, auto parts, luxury, and refurbished goods. [S1]
Sources through 2026-09-14 · Report dated 2026-09-14
Business details
How it makes money
Revenue comes mainly from transaction commissions (about 14% of GMV) and first-party advertising, which reached 2.7% of GMV in Q2 2026. Ancillary revenue includes shipping labels and store subscriptions. [S1][S6]
What drives results
GMV growth drives commission revenue; GMV grew 14% FX-neutral in Q2 2026, led by focus categories growing over 20%. [S6]
Advertising is a high-margin lever; ad revenue rose 24% year over year to $596 million in Q2 2026. [S6]
Active buyers have been flat near 136 million since 2022, so growth depends on higher spend per buyer. [S7]
Key dependencies
Analysis: eBay depends on its seller ecosystem; top-seller migration would erode inventory depth and buyer engagement. [S1]
Cross-border trade faces regulatory risk; de minimis repeal may cut 2026 GMV growth by about 1 point. [S13]
If focus-category demand fades or de minimis repeal bites harder than expected, GMV growth could fall below 5%, compressing the valuation multiple and free cash flow.
eBay runs a global marketplace earning transaction commissions and first-party advertising. It connects 136 million active buyers with 2.5 billion listings, with revenue split between marketplace fees and ads. Growth now depends on spend per buyer and ad penetration, not new-user growth.
At $107.75, the market implies 5-6% revenue growth, stable 28-29% operating margins, and 2.5% terminal growth. It does not appear to price a durable 10%+ GMV growth scenario.
The stock is fairly valued in the base case. Probability-weighted intrinsic value is about $117 per share, implying limited margin of safety at $107.75. I would want a price below $85 before calling it clearly attractive.
Focus-category momentum sustains 8-10%, advertising reaches about 3.2% of GMV, and Depop breaks even by 2028. Revenue grows 7-8% with stable 28-29% operating margin. Free cash flow reaches about $2.5 billion by 2029.