Preparing your space
Your library and workspace are being arranged now.
Preparing your space
Your library and workspace are being arranged now.
Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Intercontinental Exchange operates futures exchanges and clearing houses, including Brent crude, TTF gas and European interest-rate contracts, the New York Stock Exchange, fixed-income pricing, index and connectivity services, and U.S. mortgage software such as Encompass and MSP. Customers include banks, asset managers, traders, energy companies, listed companies, and mortgage lenders and servicers. [S1][S2][S3]
Per-contract trading and clearing fees and per-share equity trading fees (49% of 2025 net revenue), plus recurring subscriptions for data, connectivity, listings and mortgage software (51%). 2025 net revenue was $9.9bn: Exchanges 54%, Fixed Income and Data Services 24%, Mortgage Technology 21%. [S3]
Explore the research to see how business evidence informs assumptions and valuation.
Start with the business evidence, then follow the assumptions through to scenarios and valuation.
Financial data on TradingView ↗Reported statements, ratios and ownership, alongside this research.
Valuation and assumptionsICE's benchmark futures, clearing and data networks earn very high returns on tangible capital, but 2026's record trading was driven by an energy shock and a rate-hike reversal. Whether that activity persists decides most of the gap between price and value.
The number of futures and options contracts that remain open (not yet closed or expired) at a point in time. It measures positions held rather than trading activity on a given day.
In this report: ICE's open interest was up 19% year on year in August 2026. Positions held on its clearing houses tend to generate future trading and are costly to move, so open interest is the leading indicator for Exchanges revenue.
In 2025 ICE earned $9.9bn of net revenue: Exchanges 54%, Fixed Income and Data Services 24%, Mortgage Technology 21%. About half is recurring subscriptions and half transaction fees, and the adjusted operating margin was 60%.
Total revenue less transaction-based expenses such as SEC Section 31 fees, liquidity rebates paid to traders, and routing and clearing costs.
In this report: ICE's reported gross revenue ($12.6bn in 2025) includes pass-through costs; the $9.9bn net figure is what ICE keeps and is the basis for margins and valuation in this report.
At $152.93 the stock trades near 19.5x estimated 2026 adjusted EPS. Holding base-case margins, the price implies about 3.3% annual revenue growth for a decade, or the base business discounted at 8.55% rather than 7.9%.
A valuation model that works backward from a share price to find combinations of growth, margins, and other assumptions consistent with that price.
In this report: Solving the model for the growth or discount rate that equals $152.93 shows the price needs only about 3.3% revenue growth at base margins, or an 8.55% WACC.
The weighted average required return of a company's debt and equity providers, used to discount cash flows to the firm.
In this report: With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, the discount rate is the second-largest lever in ICE's valuation; the gap between price and base value is roughly 65bp of WACC.
Base value is $176 and probability-weighted value $175, about 14% above the price, but a 40bp WACC change moves value by $15 to $18. Fundamentals alone return about 9% a year, close to the cost of equity, so the stance is Hold.
The weighted average required return of a company's debt and equity providers, used to discount cash flows to the firm.
In this report: With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, the discount rate is the second-largest lever in ICE's valuation; the gap between price and base value is roughly 65bp of WACC.
Exchanges growth: the segment produces about two-thirds of adjusted operating income and swings with volatility; plus or minus 3 points a year of growth moves value by -$23 to +$29 per share.
The sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue when some operating costs are fixed.
In this report: ICE's exchange costs are mostly fixed, so extra contracts traded convert to profit at high rates; the Exchanges segment runs at about 75% adjusted margin.
The number of futures and options contracts that remain open (not yet closed or expired) at a point in time. It measures positions held rather than trading activity on a given day.
In this report: ICE's open interest was up 19% year on year in August 2026. Positions held on its clearing houses tend to generate future trading and are costly to move, so open interest is the leading indicator for Exchanges revenue.
Discount rate: with the 10-year Treasury at 5.11%, each 40bp change in WACC moves value by about $15 to $18 per share.
The weighted average required return of a company's debt and equity providers, used to discount cash flows to the firm.
In this report: With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, the discount rate is the second-largest lever in ICE's valuation; the gap between price and base value is roughly 65bp of WACC.
Energy and rates volatility fade, some speculative flow moves to CME or perpetual-futures venues, originations stagnate and MarketAxess keeps losing share; revenue compounds about 2.4% a year and margin slips to 59%.
Structurally higher open interest keeps part of 2026's activity, data and connectivity grow 6% to 7%, and mortgage recovers slowly; revenue compounds about 4.9% a year and margin rises to 64%.
The number of futures and options contracts that remain open (not yet closed or expired) at a point in time. It measures positions held rather than trading activity on a given day.
In this report: ICE's open interest was up 19% year on year in August 2026. Positions held on its clearing houses tend to generate future trading and are costly to move, so open interest is the leading indicator for Exchanges revenue.
Energy supply-chain reconfiguration and diverging central banks sustain hedging demand, Treasury clearing and MarketAxess add U.S. rates and credit share, and mortgage rates fall below 6%; revenue compounds about 6.7% a year.
Monthly futures open interest and volume: continued double-digit open-interest growth after Q1 2027 would support the base case; open interest down year on year for three months would weaken it.
The number of futures and options contracts that remain open (not yet closed or expired) at a point in time. It measures positions held rather than trading activity on a given day.
In this report: ICE's open interest was up 19% year on year in August 2026. Positions held on its clearing houses tend to generate future trading and are costly to move, so open interest is the leading indicator for Exchanges revenue.
Quarterly Exchange and FIDS recurring revenue growth against 2026 guidance of high single digits and 7% to 8%.
Mortgage Technology recurring revenue: two quarters above 6% growth would strengthen the thesis; three quarters of decline would weaken it.
Six things could not be established. (1) Revenue by geography and customer concentration: both are in the FY2025 10-K, which was read only in part. (2) Rate-per-contract trends, so futures revenue is modelled from revenue lines rather than volume times price. (3) The net invested capital in Mortgage Technology after Black Knight's assumed debt and divestiture proceeds; the roughly $23bn figure is gross consideration. (4) MarketAxess's own recent financial statements; its value contribution is inferred from ICE's deal disclosures and is a range of -$1 to +$5 per share. (5) ICE's current credit ratings and the carrying value of the Polymarket stake, inferred as about $2bn. (6) A reliable total-addressable-market figure for global exchange and data revenue. The weakest analytical link is the 7.9% WACC: screened betas (0.48 to 0.64) argue for a lower rate, while a 5.1% risk-free rate and a possibly higher equity premium argue for a higher one; at 8.55% the stock is fairly priced.
These model scenarios depend on their inputs. Review the assumptions and supporting evidence alongside the implied values.
earnings multiple v2 · as of 2026-10-18
Sign in for the price chart, where every input traces back to a filing, an adjustable scenario sandbox, and companies that move with ICE.
Create a free account →