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Something material has happened since this was last valued, 2 weeks ago. The number below still stands on the last filed facts; it sorts below unflagged companies on the screen until the next filing, or until somebody confirms the thesis holds.
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Valuation and assumptionsWritten at USD 1764.1700; now USD 1633.35000000 (-7%). Upside to the weighted case has moved from +23% to +32%.
Sandisk is a transformed NAND producer whose economics are primarily driven by contract pricing, bit growth, and NBM coverage. Its principal competitive advantage is BiCS technology and a unique multi-year contracting structure, while its most important vulnerabilities are NAND cyclicality, Kioxia dependency, and the risk of value-destructive buybacks at peak prices. Under the base case, 15% revenue growth and 50-70% operating margins imply intrinsic value of approximately $1,800 per share versus a market price of $1,764. The investment therefore depends primarily on whether NAND pricing remains above historical mid-cycle levels through 2028 and whether NBM floors genuinely protect margins. The most important evidence to monitor is quarterly NAND contract pricing and NBM coverage disclosures.
Sandisk's 10-K does not disclose individual customer names or customer-level revenue concentration for FY2026. The precise floor pricing terms in NBM agreements are not fully disclosed. HBF commercial timeline and revenue potential are unverified. Churn and renewal rates for NBM customers are not disclosed. The 10-K does not provide a mid-cycle margin framework.
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revenue multiple v1 · as of 2026-09-12
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